Feb. 11, 2024

S7 E7: 100 Seconds to Midnight: Countdown, the Finale

S7 E7: 100 Seconds to Midnight: Countdown, the Finale

You can reach me on the website at http://www.causeofdeath100secs.net or you can email me at mailto:Jackie@causeofdeath100secs.net. My Link Tree can be found at: https://linktr.ee/CauseofDeathpod This episode is the season finale of “Countdown”, and...

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You can reach me on the website at http://www.causeofdeath100secs.net or you can email me at mailto:Jackie@causeofdeath100secs.net. My Link Tree can be found at: https://linktr.ee/CauseofDeathpod This episode is the season finale of “Countdown”, and that sentiment has been announced by the Board of Atomic Scientists. They made the announcement on January 23, 2024. They have referred to this time as a moment of historic danger. “This year, the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists leave the hands of the Doomsday Clock unchanged due to ominous trends that continue to point the world toward global catastrophe.” Countdown, the Finale Show Notes: The January 23rd announcement of the Science and Security Board: https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/ https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/nuclear-risk/ https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/worldwide#:~:text=Nine%20countries%20possess%20nuclear%20weapons,is%20close%20to%2013%2C000%20weapons. https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiAt5euBhB9EiwAdkXWOyENFzF9Rcw4CyCkeD-ubxbexrclYhy_iQrf0Bta0HfvjW6AvwvIuBoC7EgQAvD_BwE https://ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/opinion/inevitability.html https://ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/breakthrough.html https://www.nti.org/area/nuclear/ https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/nuclear-weapons?CMP=ILC-refresh https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/27/us-frets-over-irans-accelerated-uranium-enrichment-programme https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/real-russian-nuclear-threat https://time.com/6323059/us-china-russia-nuclear-threat/ https://www.ntiindex.org/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/as-the-us-faces-down-new-nuclear-threats-will-cold-war-solutions-work-once-again/ https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/solutions https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/04/rattling-nuclear-saber-what-russia-s-nuclear-threats-really-mean-pub-89689 https://www.icanw.org/will_putin_use_nuclear_weapons https://world101.cfr.org/global-era-issues/nuclear-proliferation/nuclear-world https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/return-nuclear-escalation https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/ https://www.aljazeera.com/tag/israel-war-on-gaza/ https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/worldwide?utm_source=googlegrants&utm_medium=search&utm_campaign=GSP&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiAiP2tBhBXEiwACslfnpqmexpLcMY3Kgo1EpbsSYGLtOrs0OOvQMPK48EMT9AOzH1qM9hDhxoCGUgQAvD_BwE https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-kim-jong-un-us-missile-tests-threat-nuclear-war/ https://thebulletin.org/2023/11/why-a-russian-nuclear-expert-thinks-the-doomsday-clock-should-move-away-from-midnight/ https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15250.doc.htm https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50068.htm https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-u-s-s-plans-to-modernize-nuclear-weapons-are-dangerous-and-unnecessary/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=paid&utm_campaign=tfd_dsa&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiAiP2tBhBXEiwACslfniXvPhGsmExdPF0TbFL-t-I1wROwuKtLzwaMVVRIf1CBqutWoXxr2xoCCY0QAvD_BwE https://gsinstitute.org/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiAiP2tBhBXEiwACslfnrsJFQ-KeYi8Jfd1tus-ZaiPBG5eowGF0UR1lt8ClNqIFI6oVxfDFhoCfQAQAvD_BwE https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiAt5euBhB9EiwAdkXWOyENFzF9Rcw4CyCkeD-ubxbexrclYhy_iQrf0Bta0HfvjW6AvwvIuBoC7EgQAvD_BwE https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/worldwide#:~:text=Nine%20countries%20possess%20nuclear%20weapons,is%20close%20to%2013%2C000%20weapons. https://www.statista.com/statistics/264435/number-of-nuclear-warheads-worldwide/ http://nuclearrisk.org/3likely.php https://cepa.org/article/the-china-russia-axis-moves-into-high-gear/ https://news.mit.edu/2023/foreign-policy-scholars-examine-china-russia-relationship-1117 https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/11/china-russia-alliance-cooperation-brics-sco-economy-military-war-ukraine-putin-xi/...

WEBVTT

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over to the dark Side. We're
really nice people once you get past the

27
00:02:06.120 --> 00:02:15.039
true crime and scary science. Hello
and welcome to Cause of Death one hundred

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00:02:15.159 --> 00:02:23.000
seconds to midnight. I'm your host, Jackie Murante. This episode is the

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season finale of Countdown and that sentiment
has been announced by the Board of Atomic

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00:02:29.199 --> 00:02:34.879
Scientists. They made the announcement on
January twenty third of twenty twenty four.

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They have referred to this time as
a moment of historic danger. Quote.

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This year, the Science and Security
Board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists leave

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the hands of the doomsday clock unchanged
due to ominous trends that continue to point

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the world toward global catastrophe end quote. It is still ninety seconds to midnight.

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While the board addressed several concerns involving
disruptive technologies, biological threats, and

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climate change, the first mention was
nuclear arms and the possibility that one country

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or another might push the button.
In February of twenty twenty three, Vladimir

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Putin announced his decision to suspend the
new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. In all

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honesty, he really doesn't have that
power, but Vlad will be Vlad.

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There are no real indicators that Russia
has exceeded the treaty's limits, but they

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really haven't been participating in data exchanges, inspections, or other transparency measures that

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prove that the country has indeed reduced
arms. Last March, Putin announced the

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deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus,
but there have been no indicators that any

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weapons have been moved into or out
of that area. Russia has right around

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five thousand, nine hundred and ninety
seven nuclear weapons at its disposal. Last

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October, Russia's Duma voted to withdraw
Moscow's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban

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Treaty. Putin has told many outlets
that he won't resume nuclear testing unless the

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US does, but on March twenty
first, twenty twenty three, he met

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with China's President Xi Jinping in Moscow. Out of this meeting, an agreement

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between China and Russia was born.
China may provide military aid to Russia in

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exchange for help building China's nuclear forces. China currently has about four hundred and

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ten nuclear weapons. China and the
US are standing warhead to warhead, and

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this could lead to a nuclear arms
race between the two. A recent consensus

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report by the Bipartisan Congressional Commission on
the Strategic Posture of the United States stated

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that the United States and its allies
must remain ready to deter and defeat both

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Russia and China. I'm going to
let that sit there for a minute.

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The report went on to recommend quote
fully and urgently executing the US nuclear modernization

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end quote. The US has roughly
five thousand, four hundred and twenty eight

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nuclear warheads. Many of these are
scattered throughout five other nations, Turkey,

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Italy, Belgium, Germany and the
Netherlands. Talks between the US and Iran

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have completely broken down since Iran has
supported Russia in the war in Ukraine.

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Iran's arm status remains unclear. International
monitors have been increasingly unable to capture any

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data on the status of nuclear weapons
produced in Iran, and Iran really isn't

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divulging any information to anyone. In
all honesty, we have no idea whether

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Iran has any nuclear weapons at all, but we do know that they're working

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on it. They've had the means
to produce facile material for a long time,

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and they could produce a small number
of weapons in a few weeks if

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they really wanted to. For Iran, it's more a matter of time.

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This is particularly worrisome considering the escalation
of the war in Israel and Gaza.

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That war could spread across the Middle
East like wildfire. Israel has ninety nuclear

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warheads at their disposal. That doesn't
seem like a lot, but Israel possesses

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enough fissile material to produce up to
two hundred more in a short period of

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time. North Korea put themselves on
the nuclear map back in the eighties,

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so they've been added a good minute. They've conducted six nuclear weapons tests.

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The first was in two thousand and
six, then two thousand and nine,

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twenty thirteen, twice in twenty sixteen, and the last in twenty seventeen.

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Last March, several photographs were released
showing a row of warheads that were smaller

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than the previous ones they had developed. These can be deployed on shorter range

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missiles. In April, the country
claimed that they had successfully tested a solid

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fuel ballistic missile. These missiles can
be moved and launched quickly, making it

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less likely for the target to respond
in time. South Korea has asked to

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play a larger role in the nuclear
commitments of the US to defend itself.

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North Korea currently has thirty nuclear weapons. The twenty fifth anniversary of nuclear testing

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in India and Pakistan passed last May, and both of those countries continue to

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accumulate weapons and delivery systems. They
point those weapons at one another in a

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never ending conflict. India is known
to have one hundred and sixty four nuclear

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weapons, and Pakistan has one hundred
and seventy. While France and the UK

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seem to live in relative peace with
the rest of the world, they've also

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accumulated nuclear stores. France has two
hundred and ninety nuclear weapons and the UK

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has two hundred and twenty five.
This all adds up to a total of

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twelve thousand, five hundred and twelve
known nukes, but there could be more

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or less. These weapons are many
times more powerful than the bomb that was

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dropped on Hiroshima back in World War
Two. If one of them was detonated

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today, it would kill an estimated
five hundred and eighty three thousand, one

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hundred and sixty people instantly. In
his paper on the Probability of Nuclear war,

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Martin E. Hellman quoted Hiram Maxim, the inventor of the machine gun,

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as saying, quote, only a
general who was a barbarian would send

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his men to certain death against the
concentrated power of my new gun. End

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quote. General Douglas MacArthur addressed the
Philippines Congress in nineteen sixty one. Quote

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you will say at once that although
the abolition of war has been the dream

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of man for centuries, every proposition
to that end has been promptly discarded as

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impossible and fantastic. But that was
before the science of the past decade has

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made mass destruction a reality. The
argument then was along spiritual and moral lines

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and lost. But now the tremendous
evolution of nuclear and other potentials of destruction

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has suddenly taken the problem away from
its primary consideration as a moral and spiritual

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question and brought it abreast of the
scientific realism end quote. Hellman is best

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known for the invention of public key
cryptography. This technology enables secure Internet transactions.

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The algorithm was developed by Hellman and
Whitefield Diffy in nineteen seventy six and

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is still used today. This is
how we transfer money between bank accounts,

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Venmo, PayPal and Hellman is a
cryptologist and a mathematician, and today he

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uses his skills to estimate the probability
of nuclear war. Hellman argues that with

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each new discovery in weapons technology,
mankind hopes that by building them, they

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will never be used. Society's envision
a cold war that keeps us from attacking

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one another because we know that by
using these weapons we will destroy ourselves.

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In reality, this possibility doesn't exist. It can't happen. Every new invention

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becomes a tool. Eventually, Hellman
believes that there is a one hundred percent

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certainty that man will destroy himself with
nuclear weapons if only given enough time.

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While Hellman understands that the genie is
out of the lamp and it's impossible to

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put it back in, he also
knows that this genie is probably going to

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destroy mankind. In his paper,
which was originally written in nineteen eighty five

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and updated in two thousand and eight, he explains probability quote. The inevitability

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00:12:09.720 --> 00:12:16.000
concept can best be understood by analogy
to finance. It does not make sense

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00:12:16.039 --> 00:12:20.519
to talk of an interest rate as
being high or low, for example,

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fifty percent or one percent, without
comparing it to a specific period of time.

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An interest rate of fifty percent per
year is high, an interest rate

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of fifty percent per century is low, and the low interest rate of one

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percent per year, builds up to
a much higher interest rate, say one

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hundred percent, when compounded over a
sufficiently long time end quote. He goes

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00:12:50.679 --> 00:12:54.919
on to say, in the same
way, it does not make sense to

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talk about the probability of nuclear war
being high or low. For example,

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00:13:00.200 --> 00:13:05.639
ten percent versus one percent, without
comparing it to a specific period of time,

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00:13:05.919 --> 00:13:13.039
for example, ten percent per decade
or one percent per year. Having

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00:13:13.080 --> 00:13:16.879
gotten the units right, we might
argue whether the probability of nuclear war per

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00:13:16.960 --> 00:13:22.639
year was high or low, but
it would make no real difference. If

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the probability is ten percent per year, then we expect the holocaust to come

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in about ten years. If it's
one percent per year, then we can

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00:13:31.519 --> 00:13:37.840
expect it in one hundred years.
We have pulled the trigger on this macabre

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game more often than is imagined.
Each action on our current path has come

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chance of triggering the final global war, and if we keep pulling the trigger,

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the gun will eventually go off.
Each small war in Iran or Iraq,

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or Vietnam or Afghanistan is pulling the
trigger. Each threat of the u

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S use of violence, as in
the Cuban missile crisis, is pulling the

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00:14:03.840 --> 00:14:07.399
trigger. Each day that goes by
in which a missile or a computer can

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00:14:07.480 --> 00:14:13.879
fail is pulling the trigger. The
only way to survive Russian Roulette is to

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00:14:13.960 --> 00:14:20.600
stop playing. The only way to
survive nuclear Roulette is to move beyond the

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00:14:20.679 --> 00:14:26.360
war. In the same sense that
the civilized world has moved beyond human sacrifice

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00:14:26.399 --> 00:14:31.440
and slavery end quote. He's right. The only way to ensure that no

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00:14:31.480 --> 00:14:35.960
one pulls the trigger for the final
time is to stop conflict before it starts.

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00:14:37.759 --> 00:14:43.399
But that statistically unlikely as well by
one hundred percent. Let's take a

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00:14:43.399 --> 00:14:46.960
break to hear from our sponsors.
Then we'll be back to discuss some of

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00:14:48.000 --> 00:14:52.799
the current potentials. Spring is coming
and I'm preparing my garden beds and pots

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00:14:52.799 --> 00:14:58.840
for growing. Soon I'll be starting
seeds, and you know where I'll be

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00:14:58.919 --> 00:15:03.399
headed for all my life. I
supplies. That's right, I'm going to

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True Leaf Market. I'm pretty new
to growing, and this year True Leaf

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Market has added a new tool to
their website to help me grow like a

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pro. It's the seed Finder Quiz. I love this. It helped me

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00:15:22.919 --> 00:15:28.440
choose the best varieties of plants for
my growing zone, my level of experience,

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00:15:28.080 --> 00:15:33.039
and the characteristics of the vegetables.
In no time at all, I

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00:15:33.080 --> 00:15:39.559
had chosen several varieties of melons,
tomatoes, corn beans, and peppers.

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00:15:41.559 --> 00:15:46.159
I'm still building my order, so
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months supply of vitamin D three with
your first purchase. The US and China

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are puffing up for another Cold war, and Russia has been threatening to use

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her nuclear power against the world for
almost a year now, with rumors that

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nuclear warheads have been moved to Belarus
for testing. The countries surrounding Ukraine are

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becoming increasingly nervous that the conflict could
spill over into their lands. There is

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a real possibility that Germany, Italy, France and Belgium could have their defenses

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ready just in case. Last year, China and Russia announced a no limits

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partnership, but Putin denies that there
are military ties between the two countries.

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Consider this, between the ongoing war
in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle

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East that could affect the flow of
trade through Yemen's bat El Mandeb Strait,

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and the possibility that China could attack
Taiwan. These three things could force the

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US into a crisis with China,
Russia, and Iran. These three countries

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have opposed the world order that the
US and her allies put into place eighty

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years ago. This partnership has the
intention to tear down the existing world order,

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and the US is at the heart
of that world order. While the

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US was focusing on eliminating terrorism in
the Middle East, they reconstructed their military

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and lowered the industrial base for defense
to the point that they cannot provide the

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quantities of weapons that a war against
China and Russia would demand. Russian and

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Chinese military forceses came together last year
five times to perform military exercises in the

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Sea of Japan and the East China
Sea. China is growing its navy,

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and Russia possesses some very high end
military technologies. If Russia should share those

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with China, the balance of power
in that part of the world would change

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quickly, and together China and Russia
could become the most powerful military forces in

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the world. By the end of
twenty twenty three, the US began looking

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to Iran's nuclear arms acceleration on the
heels of several drone attacks. The International

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Atomic Energy Agency the IAEA reported that
Tehran has boosted production of weapons grade uranium.

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The IAEI verified the increased rate of
production when inspectors traveled to the facilities

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in Nantanes and Fordeaux. At the
end of November twenty twenty three, those

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facilities had produced around nine kilograms of
uranium per month. This was up from

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June of twenty twenty three, when
facilities were producing about three kilograms of uranium

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per month. The IAEA issued a
warning to Iran that they were close to

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the limit of production allowed. Iran's
atomic energy chief, Mohammed Islami, responded

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to the warning with the Nile quote, we did nothing new and we are

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doing the same activities according to the
rules end quote. Could the world be

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headed to another Cold War? Honestly, it seems as if the Cold War

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only ended on paper. Treaties between
NATO and non NATO countries were broken years

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ago despite promises to dismantle their toys
and go home. The threats from Russia

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and North Korea and China have loomed
over the world since those countries gained access

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to nuclear technology. That technology is
no secret now everyone has it. The

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only thing that holds most countries back
from production is money. The nuclear arms

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race is comparable to keeping up with
the Joneses. Everyone wants a nuke in

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their backyard, and those who can't
have one in their backyards don't matter.

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The plan for them is to be
fodder for the winner. But what will

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be left contaminated air and water,
land where crops can't grow, People dying

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of cancer and starvation. That seems
to be the fate of survivors of nuclear

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attack, and most won't survive for
long. I grew up during the Cold

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War, and I remember those stupid
drills where we were hiding under our desks

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with our books over our heads,
waiting for a bomb to drop on us.

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I never knew a time when nuclear
arms didn't exist. I remember,

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even as a child, I thought
those drills were stupid. We watched videos

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of the bomb dropping on Hiroshima,
and those videos showed the aftermath. People

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were vaporized, buildings were destroyed.
I knew there was no way a desk

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and a textbook could save me.
I asked my aunt about it once we

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were sitting at the dinner table,
and I may have been in like second

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00:24:22.960 --> 00:24:27.759
or third grade. I asked,
how can we be saved by hiding under

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our desks? She glanced over at
my uncle. I'm not sure, she

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00:24:34.440 --> 00:24:40.079
said. My uncle, who was
always known to tell everyone how the cow

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ate the cabbage with no provocation at
all, remained silent when I looked to

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him for answers. That was my
answer. We would not be saved.

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These were years when protests were held
demanding that the US put down her arms.

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People were standing on the railroad tracks
at Rocky Flats holding signs that said

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00:25:00.680 --> 00:25:07.240
no more nukes and save our children. They stood outside the gates of Lockheed

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00:25:07.279 --> 00:25:11.000
Martin yelling anti war slogans, and
they marched outside the gates of Lowry Air

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00:25:11.039 --> 00:25:15.359
Force Base, chanting and demanding that
the US be the first to stop the

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arms race. Those people felt like
they were doing something, but I think

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they knew they weren't really making a
difference in the arms race. I wanted

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00:25:26.599 --> 00:25:29.839
to go out and protest with them, but my aunt and uncle were not

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about to let me do anything that
would a be construed as anti military and

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b get me arrested at the young
age of twelve or thirteen. I really

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don't remember how old I was when
those protests were going on, but it

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was around that age. When the
Cold War ended, so did the protests.

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We lulled ourselves into a false sense
of security, thinking that the world

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had come to an agreement and the
silos that held the warheads would be dismantled.

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I didn't realize they hadn't been until
I was in high school and found

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the Board of Atomic Scientists and the
Doomsday Clock. I've been watching the clock

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and following the reports ever since.
If you'd like to hear the history of

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the Doomsday Clock, I did an
episode on that way back in season four.

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It was episode one, and it's
called, oddly, the History of

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00:26:23.000 --> 00:26:29.680
the Doomsday Clock. You might want
to go back and listen. I'm no

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expert on war, I won't ever
claim to be, but I have enough

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00:26:33.000 --> 00:26:37.960
understanding on the subject to know that
man has been at war with himself since

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00:26:37.000 --> 00:26:42.759
the dawn of time. He's always
sought ways to build bigger and better weapons

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00:26:42.799 --> 00:26:51.039
to kill his enemies that will,
unfortunately never stop. In his paper,

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00:26:51.160 --> 00:26:56.839
Hellman states that he is not in
favor of disarmament at this point, disarmament

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00:26:56.920 --> 00:27:02.200
for the US or Russia would be
suicide. Escalation is the only choice.

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00:27:03.400 --> 00:27:08.119
But can the world's superpowers humble themselves
enough to de escalate? Can they stop

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00:27:08.240 --> 00:27:15.720
before someone gives the final order?
Is it possible to keep aiming nuclear warheads

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00:27:15.759 --> 00:27:22.920
at our enemies and maintain peace?
Only time will tell. It's ninety seconds

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00:27:22.920 --> 00:27:29.119
to midnight, and the world continues
to turn while the most powerful governments align

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00:27:29.240 --> 00:27:34.599
against one another for a final showdown. Thank you for listening to Cause of

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00:27:34.640 --> 00:27:40.359
Death one hundred seconds to midnight.
The links to my research, including the

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00:27:40.480 --> 00:27:44.720
January twenty twenty four announcement of the
doomsday clock, can be found in the

288
00:27:44.720 --> 00:27:49.920
show notes. It's worth the read. There are also links to my sponsors,

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00:27:51.440 --> 00:27:56.480
Easy Amounts where you can take your
vitamins the Easy Way and truelyef Market.

290
00:27:57.119 --> 00:28:02.079
Spring is creeping up on us and
I'm getting ready to start my seeds.

291
00:28:02.519 --> 00:28:07.960
True Leaf Market is my go to
for all my gardening supplies. Please

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00:28:07.000 --> 00:28:11.759
feel free to contact me at Jackie
at cause of Death one hundred sex dot

293
00:28:11.839 --> 00:28:18.759
net. You can also leave a
message at the website at www dot cause

294
00:28:18.799 --> 00:28:25.680
of Death one hundred sex dot net. I love hearing from you. The

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00:28:25.680 --> 00:28:29.240
website is pretty cool, so go
poke around and read the blog, look

296
00:28:29.240 --> 00:28:32.359
at pictures of my dog, and
catch up on all things cause of Death.

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00:28:33.720 --> 00:28:37.079
Thanks to all who voted in my
latest poll. If you missed that,

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00:28:37.240 --> 00:28:41.839
I asked if sweet Peas should continue
to be my spokesdog for the show,

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00:28:41.400 --> 00:28:47.200
and it was unanimous that she should. Sweetpea also thanks you for that.

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00:28:47.720 --> 00:28:49.799
She was sad that there was one
person out there who thought that her

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00:28:49.920 --> 00:28:56.200
videos were lame. If you'd like
to support the show and keep sweet Pea

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00:28:56.279 --> 00:29:00.839
intreats, doggy daycare and spa treatments, you can do so on Patreon,

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00:29:00.000 --> 00:29:04.519
Apple Subscriptions, and Cofi. The
links to all of those are in the

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00:29:04.519 --> 00:29:11.799
show notes as well. This is
the final episode of season seven, Countdown.

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00:29:11.480 --> 00:29:15.960
I hope that it's been as interesting
for you as it has been for

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00:29:15.079 --> 00:29:21.480
me. Next season, we go
back to disease. Season eight is called

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00:29:21.599 --> 00:29:26.640
Creepy Crawley's and the first episode will
feature my dog, Sweetpea, telling her

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00:29:26.799 --> 00:29:30.799
story of having whipworm. For those
of you who live for thee hundred seconds

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00:29:30.799 --> 00:29:34.480
to midnight episodes, don't worry,
there will be a few of those sprinkled

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00:29:34.480 --> 00:29:38.759
into the next season. Asso Thank
you for listening to Cause of Death one

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00:29:38.839 --> 00:30:12.440
hundred seconds to midnight where the clock
just never stops ticking down and b