S7 E7: 100 Seconds to Midnight: Countdown, the Finale

0:00 Hi guys. I'm Courtney and I'm Lisa, and we are the hosts of the Book of the Dead, a true crime podcast based out of New Jersey, where we tell you about the most obscure cases that you may have never heard of. So join us in the Book of the Dead library for another chapter of the Book of the Dead. Wherever you get your podcasts. Hi guys, are you looking for your next true crime podcast? Do you craze stories that have mystery and suspense? Well, look no further introducing Love and Murder, the podcast that dives deep into the world of relationships gone horribly wrong.

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1:40 Side effects include enjoining another true crime podcast, becoming a LAMB, learning logic and how to deal with your problems in a healthy manner and not turn into murder. Waiting for the next episode of Love and Murder to drop every week. Visit my website at www dot Murder and love dot com and remember all love and no murder. See you soon. Darkcast Network, come on over to the dark Side. We're really nice people once you get past the true crime and scary science. Hello and welcome to Cause of Death one hundred seconds to midnight. I'm your host, Jackie Murante. This episode is the season finale of Countdown and that sentiment has been announced by the Board of Atomic Scientists. They made the announcement on January twenty third of twenty twenty four.

2:36 They have referred to this time as a moment of historic danger. Quote. This year, the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists leave the hands of the doomsday clock unchanged due to ominous trends that continue to point the world toward global catastrophe end quote. It is still ninety seconds to midnight. While the board addressed several concerns involving disruptive technologies, biological threats, and climate change, the first mention was nuclear arms and the possibility that one country or another might push the button. In February of twenty twenty three, Vladimir Putin announced his decision to suspend the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. In all honesty, he really doesn't have that power, but Vlad will be Vlad.

3:38 There are no real indicators that Russia has exceeded the treaty's limits, but they really haven't been participating in data exchanges, inspections, or other transparency measures that prove that the country has indeed reduced arms. Last March, Putin announced the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, but there have been no indicators that any weapons have been moved into or out of that area. Russia has right around five thousand, nine hundred and ninety seven nuclear weapons at its disposal. Last October, Russia's Duma voted to withdraw Moscow's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Putin has told many outlets that he won't resume nuclear testing unless the US does, but on March twenty first, twenty twenty three, he met with China's President Xi Jinping in Moscow. Out of this meeting, an agreement between China and Russia was born. China may provide military aid to Russia in exchange for help building China's nuclear forces. China currently has about four hundred and ten nuclear weapons. China and the US are standing warhead to warhead, and this could lead to a nuclear arms race between the two. A recent consensus

5:12 report by the Bipartisan Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States stated that the United States and its allies must remain ready to deter and defeat both Russia and China. I'm going to let that sit there for a minute. The report went on to recommend quote fully and urgently executing the US nuclear modernization end quote. The US has roughly five thousand, four hundred and twenty eight nuclear warheads. Many of these are scattered throughout five other nations, Turkey, Italy, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Talks between the US and Iran have completely broken down since Iran has supported Russia in the war in Ukraine.

6:08 Iran's arm status remains unclear. International monitors have been increasingly unable to capture any data on the status of nuclear weapons produced in Iran, and Iran really isn't divulging any information to anyone. In all honesty, we have no idea whether Iran has any nuclear weapons at all, but we do know that they're working on it. They've had the means to produce facile material for a long time, and they could produce a small number of weapons in a few weeks if they really wanted to. For Iran, it's more a matter of time. This is particularly worrisome considering the escalation of the war in Israel and Gaza.

6:51 That war could spread across the Middle East like wildfire. Israel has ninety nuclear warheads at their disposal. That doesn't seem like a lot, but Israel possesses enough fissile material to produce up to two hundred more in a short period of time. North Korea put themselves on the nuclear map back in the eighties, so they've been added a good minute. They've conducted six nuclear weapons tests. The first was in two thousand and six, then two thousand and nine, twenty thirteen, twice in twenty sixteen, and the last in twenty seventeen.

7:34 Last March, several photographs were released showing a row of warheads that were smaller than the previous ones they had developed. These can be deployed on shorter range missiles. In April, the country claimed that they had successfully tested a solid fuel ballistic missile. These missiles can be moved and launched quickly, making it less likely for the target to respond in time. South Korea has asked to play a larger role in the nuclear commitments of the US to defend itself. North Korea currently has thirty nuclear weapons. The twenty fifth anniversary of nuclear testing in India and Pakistan passed last May, and both of those countries continue to accumulate weapons and delivery systems. They point those weapons at one another in a never ending conflict. India is known to have one hundred and sixty four nuclear weapons, and Pakistan has one hundred and seventy. While France and the UK seem to live in relative peace with the rest of the world, they've also accumulated nuclear stores. France has two hundred and ninety nuclear weapons and the UK has two hundred and twenty five. This all adds up to a total of twelve thousand, five hundred and twelve known nukes, but there could be more

9:05 or less. These weapons are many times more powerful than the bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima back in World War Two. If one of them was detonated today, it would kill an estimated five hundred and eighty three thousand, one hundred and sixty people instantly. In his paper on the Probability of Nuclear war, Martin E. Hellman quoted Hiram Maxim, the inventor of the machine gun, as saying, quote, only a general who was a barbarian would send his men to certain death against the concentrated power of my new gun. End quote. General Douglas MacArthur addressed the Philippines Congress in nineteen sixty one. Quote you will say at once that although the abolition of war has been the dream of man for centuries, every proposition to that end has been promptly discarded as impossible and fantastic. But that was before the science of the past decade has made mass destruction a reality. The argument then was along spiritual and moral lines and lost. But now the tremendous evolution of nuclear and other potentials of destruction has suddenly taken the problem away from its primary consideration as a moral and spiritual question and brought it abreast of the scientific realism end quote. Hellman is best

10:39 known for the invention of public key cryptography. This technology enables secure Internet transactions. The algorithm was developed by Hellman and Whitefield Diffy in nineteen seventy six and is still used today. This is how we transfer money between bank accounts, Venmo, PayPal and Hellman is a cryptologist and a mathematician, and today he uses his skills to estimate the probability of nuclear war. Hellman argues that with each new discovery in weapons technology, mankind hopes that by building them, they will never be used. Society's envision a cold war that keeps us from attacking one another because we know that by using these weapons we will destroy ourselves.

11:28 In reality, this possibility doesn't exist. It can't happen. Every new invention becomes a tool. Eventually, Hellman believes that there is a one hundred percent certainty that man will destroy himself with nuclear weapons if only given enough time. While Hellman understands that the genie is out of the lamp and it's impossible to put it back in, he also knows that this genie is probably going to destroy mankind. In his paper, which was originally written in nineteen eighty five and updated in two thousand and eight, he explains probability quote. The inevitability concept can best be understood by analogy to finance. It does not make sense to talk of an interest rate as being high or low, for example, fifty percent or one percent, without comparing it to a specific period of time.

12:26 An interest rate of fifty percent per year is high, an interest rate of fifty percent per century is low, and the low interest rate of one percent per year, builds up to a much higher interest rate, say one hundred percent, when compounded over a sufficiently long time end quote. He goes on to say, in the same way, it does not make sense to talk about the probability of nuclear war being high or low. For example, ten percent versus one percent, without comparing it to a specific period of time, for example, ten percent per decade or one percent per year. Having gotten the units right, we might argue whether the probability of nuclear war per year was high or low, but it would make no real difference. If the probability is ten percent per year, then we expect the holocaust to come in about ten years. If it's one percent per year, then we can expect it in one hundred years. We have pulled the trigger on this macabre game more often than is imagined. Each action on our current path has come chance of triggering the final global war, and if we keep pulling the trigger, the gun will eventually go off. Each small war in Iran or Iraq, or Vietnam or Afghanistan is pulling the trigger. Each threat of the u

13:58 S use of violence, as in the Cuban missile crisis, is pulling the trigger. Each day that goes by in which a missile or a computer can fail is pulling the trigger. The only way to survive Russian Roulette is to stop playing. The only way to survive nuclear Roulette is to move beyond the war. In the same sense that the civilized world has moved beyond human sacrifice and slavery end quote. He's right. The only way to ensure that no one pulls the trigger for the final time is to stop conflict before it starts. But that statistically unlikely as well by one hundred percent. Let's take a break to hear from our sponsors. Then we'll be back to discuss some of the current potentials. Spring is coming and I'm preparing my garden beds and pots for growing. Soon I'll be starting seeds, and you know where I'll be headed for all my life. I supplies. That's right, I'm going to True Leaf Market. I'm pretty new to growing, and this year True Leaf Market has added a new tool to their website to help me grow like a pro. It's the seed Finder Quiz. I love this. It helped me choose the best varieties of plants for my growing zone, my level of experience, and the characteristics of the vegetables. In no time at all, I

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20:03 Consider this, between the ongoing war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East that could affect the flow of trade through Yemen's bat El Mandeb Strait, and the possibility that China could attack Taiwan. These three things could force the US into a crisis with China, Russia, and Iran. These three countries have opposed the world order that the US and her allies put into place eighty years ago. This partnership has the intention to tear down the existing world order, and the US is at the heart of that world order. While the US was focusing on eliminating terrorism in the Middle East, they reconstructed their military and lowered the industrial base for defense to the point that they cannot provide the quantities of weapons that a war against China and Russia would demand. Russian and Chinese military forceses came together last year five times to perform military exercises in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. China is growing its navy, and Russia possesses some very high end military technologies. If Russia should share those with China, the balance of power in that part of the world would change quickly, and together China and Russia could become the most powerful military forces in the world. By the end of twenty twenty three, the US began looking to Iran's nuclear arms acceleration on the heels of several drone attacks. The International

21:38 Atomic Energy Agency the IAEA reported that Tehran has boosted production of weapons grade uranium. The IAEI verified the increased rate of production when inspectors traveled to the facilities in Nantanes and Fordeaux. At the end of November twenty twenty three, those facilities had produced around nine kilograms of uranium per month. This was up from June of twenty twenty three, when facilities were producing about three kilograms of uranium per month. The IAEA issued a warning to Iran that they were close to the limit of production allowed. Iran's atomic energy chief, Mohammed Islami, responded to the warning with the Nile quote, we did nothing new and we are doing the same activities according to the rules end quote. Could the world be headed to another Cold War? Honestly, it seems as if the Cold War only ended on paper. Treaties between NATO and non NATO countries were broken years ago despite promises to dismantle their toys and go home. The threats from Russia and North Korea and China have loomed over the world since those countries gained access to nuclear technology. That technology is no secret now everyone has it. The only thing that holds most countries back from production is money. The nuclear arms

23:11 race is comparable to keeping up with the Joneses. Everyone wants a nuke in their backyard, and those who can't have one in their backyards don't matter. The plan for them is to be fodder for the winner. But what will be left contaminated air and water, land where crops can't grow, People dying of cancer and starvation. That seems to be the fate of survivors of nuclear attack, and most won't survive for long. I grew up during the Cold War, and I remember those stupid drills where we were hiding under our desks with our books over our heads, waiting for a bomb to drop on us.

23:52 I never knew a time when nuclear arms didn't exist. I remember, even as a child, I thought those drills were stupid. We watched videos of the bomb dropping on Hiroshima, and those videos showed the aftermath. People were vaporized, buildings were destroyed. I knew there was no way a desk and a textbook could save me. I asked my aunt about it once we were sitting at the dinner table, and I may have been in like second or third grade. I asked, how can we be saved by hiding under our desks? She glanced over at my uncle. I'm not sure, she said. My uncle, who was always known to tell everyone how the cow ate the cabbage with no provocation at all, remained silent when I looked to him for answers. That was my answer. We would not be saved.

24:51 These were years when protests were held demanding that the US put down her arms. People were standing on the railroad tracks at Rocky Flats holding signs that said no more nukes and save our children. They stood outside the gates of Lockheed Martin yelling anti war slogans, and they marched outside the gates of Lowry Air Force Base, chanting and demanding that the US be the first to stop the arms race. Those people felt like they were doing something, but I think they knew they weren't really making a difference in the arms race. I wanted to go out and protest with them, but my aunt and uncle were not about to let me do anything that would a be construed as anti military and b get me arrested at the young age of twelve or thirteen. I really don't remember how old I was when those protests were going on, but it was around that age. When the Cold War ended, so did the protests.

25:48 We lulled ourselves into a false sense of security, thinking that the world had come to an agreement and the silos that held the warheads would be dismantled. I didn't realize they hadn't been until I was in high school and found the Board of Atomic Scientists and the Doomsday Clock. I've been watching the clock and following the reports ever since. If you'd like to hear the history of the Doomsday Clock, I did an episode on that way back in season four. It was episode one, and it's called, oddly, the History of the Doomsday Clock. You might want to go back and listen. I'm no expert on war, I won't ever claim to be, but I have enough understanding on the subject to know that man has been at war with himself since the dawn of time. He's always sought ways to build bigger and better weapons to kill his enemies that will, unfortunately never stop. In his paper, Hellman states that he is not in favor of disarmament at this point, disarmament for the US or Russia would be suicide. Escalation is the only choice.

27:03 But can the world's superpowers humble themselves enough to de escalate? Can they stop before someone gives the final order? Is it possible to keep aiming nuclear warheads at our enemies and maintain peace? Only time will tell. It's ninety seconds to midnight, and the world continues to turn while the most powerful governments align against one another for a final showdown. Thank you for listening to Cause of Death one hundred seconds to midnight. The links to my research, including the January twenty twenty four announcement of the doomsday clock, can be found in the show notes. It's worth the read. There are also links to my sponsors, Easy Amounts where you can take your vitamins the Easy Way and truelyef Market.

27:57 Spring is creeping up on us and I'm getting ready to start my seeds. True Leaf Market is my go to for all my gardening supplies. Please feel free to contact me at Jackie at cause of Death one hundred sex dot net. You can also leave a message at the website at www dot cause of Death one hundred sex dot net. I love hearing from you. The website is pretty cool, so go poke around and read the blog, look at pictures of my dog, and catch up on all things cause of Death. Thanks to all who voted in my latest poll. If you missed that, I asked if sweet Peas should continue to be my spokesdog for the show, and it was unanimous that she should. Sweetpea also thanks you for that.

28:47 She was sad that there was one person out there who thought that her videos were lame. If you'd like to support the show and keep sweet Pea intreats, doggy daycare and spa treatments, you can do so on Patreon, Apple Subscriptions, and Cofi. The links to all of those are in the show notes as well. This is the final episode of season seven, Countdown. I hope that it's been as interesting for you as it has been for me. Next season, we go back to disease. Season eight is called Creepy Crawley's and the first episode will feature my dog, Sweetpea, telling her story of having whipworm. For those of you who live for thee hundred seconds to midnight episodes, don't worry, there will be a few of those sprinkled into the next season. Asso Thank you for listening to Cause of Death one hundred seconds to midnight where the clock just never stops ticking down and b