S7 E3: 100 Seconds to Midnight: Global Change and Emerging Disease

0:00 Tired to the same old podcasts every week. When you're ready for something different, come give us a shot. Greetings, We're Technically a Conversation, a podcast for curious people, by curious people. Every week we take turns sharing a new topic and the other host has no idea what the topic will be. Our topics are all over the place, from light and funny to dark and sometimes spooky. We've covered everything from true crime, historical events and people, pop culture, icons, the supernatural and occult I like that, and legends and folklore my favorite. We're like the Dollar Tree stuff you should know, except completely different. No matter what the topic is, we try to make the episodes funny. Yeah, you may not want to advertise that our jokes aren't very good. What are you talking about? My jokes are fantastic.

0:44 Hey, I get paid to laugh either way. Wait, you get paid. Check us out at Technically a Conversation dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Shout out to the eleven and a half people that listen to us on Google Podcasts. Wait, you said you were getting paid. Hi guys, I'm Courtney and I'm Lisa and we are the hosts of the Book of the Dead, a true crime podcast based out of New Jersey, where we tell you about the most obscure cases that you may have never heard of. So join us in the Book of the Dead Library for another chapter of the Book of the Dead. Wherever you get your podcasts. Bye guys, dark Cast Network, come on over to the dark Side. We're really nice people once you get past the true crime and scary science. Hello, and welcome to Cause of Death one hundred seconds to Midnight. I'm your host, Jackie Morante. This is season seven. I call it Countdown, and it's a look at why we've been sitting at ninety seconds to midnight since last January. The new year is sneaking up on us, and the doomsday clock may or may not change again in the third week of January twenty twenty four. The announcement by the Board of Atomic Scientists is

2:17 usually made around the twenty fourth of the month, and it gives an in depth look at the temperature both physically and politically around the world. While the Board addresses issues surrounding nuclear arms more than they address climate change, that subject has been mentioned more than once. I'm often asked to talk about global warming. My answer is that I do. I talk about it in almost every one hundred seconds to Midnight episode. Global warming either influences or effects just about everything that makes the clock tick down in one way or another. Today, I'm going to talk about global warming again, specifically how it is effects infectious disease. Since the COVID nineteen pandemic began, there's been a lot of talk about what it is, where it came from, and how to get rid of it or at least curb it. But I think we may need to go deeper into the jungle to talk about emerging disease and how climate change will affect it. It's ninety seconds to midnight, and across the world the temperature is rising. Not only our old diseases rearing their heads, but new diseases are making their way into humanity. They're coming with a vengeance, and we are not prepared. Before we get started, I want to define climate change and talk a little bit about what causes it. Climate change, according to

3:49 the United Nations, climate action refers to long term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Large volcanic eruptions and changes in the activity of the sun can make this occur naturally, but the main driver of climate change since the eighteen hundreds has been human activity. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane cause a barrier around the earth that traps the heat of the sun and causes temperatures to rise. Gas and coal emissions caused by driving cars and heating homes are the most common causes of carbon dioxide emissions, but clearing land and deforestation can also release carbon dioxide. Agriculture and oil and gas operations are the major causes of methane emissions. Now, I want to stop right here and say that there is no immediate remedy to this. There are currently no lasting solutions that are sustainable.

4:50 I can't just stop driving my car to work. I can stop making unnecessary trips and driving for fun, but I still have to drive. People have to eat, and those who raise our crops and animals for food can't just stop using diesel to do it. The transportation industry puts that food on our tables. So now you see the dilemma. The solutions don't come easy. Now, let's talk about this seemingly unsurmountable problem as it relates to infectious disease I'm going to mention several diseases that I haven't talked about yet, but we'll get there, I promise. There are several layers to this episode.

5:35 Climate change affects our world in many ways, and the ways that people respond to it are causing disease to spread as much as the environment is contributing to the spread of disease. We've talked about several of these things before. Severe weather, droughts, floods, and the side effects of these things war, famine, and migration. These things are known as global change, and they are the direct precursors to emerging diseases caused by climate change. The Earth's temperature is predicted to rise one to three and a half degrees celsius by the year twenty one hundred. This will increase the likelihood of vector borne diseases in new areas. It will be evident mostly in the extremes of the temperature ranges, with the low end lying between fourteen and eighteen degrees celsius and the high end lying between thirty five to forty degrees celsius. Mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, and other vectors have been reproducing and spreading disease at greater rates due to early springs, milder winters, and generally warmer temperatures. Their habitats are also expanding.

6:48 Between two thousand and four and twenty eighteen, the number of reported illnesses from mosquito, tick, and flea bites more than doubled, with more than seven hundred and sixty thousand cases reported in the US, and nine new diseases have either been discovered or introduced in the US during this period. The geographic ranges where tick borne diseases such as lime disease, anaplasmosis, electriosis, and ricossettiosis known as Rocky Mountain spotted fever have expanded, They are expected to continue to expand into new regions, endangering even more people. Mosquitoes are also reproducing at higher rates thanks to longer, warmer summers. In twenty twelve, a mild winter, early spring, and hot summer became the perfect storm for an outbreak of West Nile virus in the US that resulted in fifty six hundred illnesses and two hundred and eighty six deaths. Mosquito born, parasitic and viral diseases are among those diseases that are most sensitive to climate As more animals come into contacts with ticks and other vectors, they will be more likely to spread disease and these diseases could spread to humans. Earlier in twenty twenty three, who warned that dengey and chikiunga are now spreading far beyond their previous geographical zones of

8:18 transmission. Now half of the world's population is at risk of getting these diseases. Severe dengey can cause persistent vomiting, bleeding gums, and severe abdominal pain. The mortality rate from dengay is very high. If left untreated, the mortality rate is about thirteen percent. In Bangladesh, more than two thousand cases of dengey are being reported every day. Dhaka has converted its dedicated COVID nineteen hospital into a dengae facility. In Nepal, where dengey didn't exist until recently, climate change is causing more and more cases of the disease. Winters have been increasingly warmer with less snow, and the warmer temperatures mean that the anophales mosquitoes can inhabit the mountainous areas. This is concerning for health experts because once dangae is seen in an area, it means that Japanese encephalitis and malaria are not far behind. In a study in Biology Letters earlier in twenty twenty three, researchers found that Enophales mosquitoes have expanded their range by about six and a half meters per year and away from the equator about four point seven kilometers every year for the past century. Anophales mosquitoes carry malaria. This is a parasite that has been historically known for high mortality and morbidity rates, especially in places

9:52 where health infrastructure is lacking. Malaria causes anemia and jaundice due to the loss of red blood set in the body. Treatment is available, but the disease needs to be treated early to avoid any long term illness. Areas of the world where malaria didn't exist before will be challenged with controlling a disease that is very easily spread, and since doctors haven't seen it in those areas, it may be misdiagnosed. Another consideration of human growth is urbanization. Disease spreads quickly in urbanized areas since there is more human to human contact. This isn't something that's new. Places where people are packed together will see higher incidences of disease, while places that are less urban will see less. The eighties agypdi and eighties Alboppictus mosquitoes are well adapted to urban areas. Population density appears to be correlated with the preference of the eighties agypdi for human odor, Hence the evolution of human biting Mosquito bites cause malaria. Climate anomalies associated with al Nino southern oscillation phenomenon resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of vector borne diseases. These events have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in

11:22 Africa, Asia, and South America. Heavy rains create breeding grounds for vectors, drive vector carrying rodents from their burrows, and contaminate clean water systems. There is some debate amongst researchers as to the true threat of emerging infectionous disease as it relates to climate change, but I'll agree that climate change is causing side effects that are related to emerging global diseases. War famine, migration, water shortages, catastrophic weather events, milder winters and hotter summers are all contributed to emerging diseases, and all can be directly related to climate change. Human susceptibility to various diseases may be compounded by malnutrition due to climate stress on agriculture.

12:13 The human immune system could also weaken by an increased flux in ultraviolet radiation. The effects of disease will differ greatly between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in different regions will also influence disease trends. There is a need for more disease modeling of countries affected in populations and studies on geographical data to help project the actual outcomes. Actually, there is a need for more disease surveillance worldwide. Those areas with poor disease surveillance and where people don't report their illnesses are more likely to suffer the con consequences when the outbreaks occur. If epidemiologists don't know there's a problem, they can't do much to fix it. Through research, we can find ways to mitigate the possibilities of pandemics related to climate change, but that's a long way off. At this point, mitigation hasn't been a realistic or popular thought.

13:20 We must recognize when these things are about to happen, so we can stop them before they start. Through field and laboratory studies, the determination of developmental thresholds, tolerances and tipping points needs to be established. Risk assessment and predictive modeling will be a big part of major developments to stop trends using a full range of scenarios, but not every scenario will be part of the prediction. Many things will slip through the cracks. Human migration due to collapsing infrastructure during weather events in other parts of the world will also be a factor in running diseases like cholera. Recently, there was a cholera outbreak in Europe because of a migration from Kenya, where a severe weather event had taken place. It's important to keep in mind that there will be several factors that are put into play when it comes to novelle diseases and vectors finding their way into new geographical territories. Migration is only one of them. Even now, the transport of food, goods and people across the world exacerbates the likelihood of emerging diseases.

14:33 We saw this with COVID nineteen. Planes, trains, and automobiles took that disease from Wuhan everywhere else, and by the time anyone thought to shut down travel, it was too late. The part of this that will be affected by climate change is whether the diseases will stick around. Will they be able to survive in climates that were once too cold for them since those climates will be getting warmer. Climate change has begun to manifest significant impact on terrestrial ecosystem structure, particularly in northern latitudes. Soil composition, vegetation, cover and distribution of wild ruminant species, and the density and movement of domestic livestock are all shifting as temperatures rise globally and extreme weather events occur. This is causing new vulnerabilities that can alter transmission cycles between hosts and pathogens. We're going to take a little break to hear from our sponsors, then we'll be back to talk about anthrax. Have you been injured in an accident recently? Are you thinking that maybe you should talk with a lawyer to see if you could get compensation, Well, accident dot com is here for you. Accident dot Com is inspired by their simple and important mission to ensure that everyone in America gets fast and free access to legal advice and pursues the claims they are entitled to.

16:08 It's easy to get in touch with the lawyer. Just go to the accident dot com website, fill out the form with the case details, and the closest attorney to your location will reach out to you and talk about your case. The consultation is free, so there's no risk. If you have questions about personal injury, contact accident dot com today and find out if you can be compensated. Anthrax is everywhere. It lives in the ground. It rarely affects mammals, but it can be deadly when it does as the earthworms. Anthrax can become more prevalent in places that it hasn't been seen before, particularly in the temperate, boreal and Arctic north, where global warming has taken its biggest toll on the environment. Livestock dish distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil to water balance will also have an impact on emergence. Anthracs can typically be found in North America, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. Transmission is better controlled in more affluent countries and less so in places where healthcare infrastructure is lacking.

17:22 Grasslands in the semi arid step of northern latitudes are in particular danger of becoming vulnerable to climate change. These fragile systems are easily destroyed, and emerging diseases such as anthrax could become problematic since these grasslands are important grazing zones for wild, ruminant and domestic livestock populations. Recently, there have been outbreaks of anthrax in the northern tundra biome of the Russian Arctic, where the permafrost is melting. These outbreaks have devastated local caribou herding communities. Temperatures in the Arctic Circle are rising about three times faster than the rest of the world. Many ancient pathogens are lying in wait under the melting permafrost. Permafrost is a preserver for those pathogens because there is no oxygen and it's cold and dark. Bacteria, viruses, and fungi can survive after being frozen for hundreds or even thousands of years under the permafrost. Recently, fragments of RNA from the nineteen eighteen Spanish flu virus were found in people who had been buried in Alaska's hundred during the pandemic. In twenty sixteen, a twelve year old child died and twenty people were infected with anthrax when the body of a reindeer that had died of the disease seventy five years before was exposed after a heat wave in Siberia melted

18:52 the permafrost where it was buried. Another team of researchers collected samples of the Earth's oldest glacial ice from fifty meters below the surface into bet and uncovered twenty eight ancient viruses that were previously unknown. Air pollution could help viruses become airborne and more deadly. Particulate pollutions, such as black carbons, sulfates, and nitrates, penetrate deep into the lungs, which creates serious health conditions on their own, but viruses could attach to these particulates and travel deeper into the body. This, combined with the weakened immune system caused by pollution, could help viruses spread more easily and become more virulent. There will likely be an increase in allergenic diseases, complications in cardiovascular disease, and respiratory diseases when we consider the effects of climate change. Water Borne infections, food borne infections, and vector borne infections are of greatest concern. The atmosphere warms, food will spoil faster, and algal blooms will become more prevalent. Fungi and love warm weather and climate change is allowing fungi to migrate into areas where once it was too cold for them to survive. An example of this is valley fever. Normally found in hot, dry areas, it has recently been found in the Pacific

20:23 Northwest. Valley fever causes severe infections and is often misdiagnosed and improperly treated, leading to a very high mortality rate. As the difference between environmental temperature and human body temperature narrows, new fungal diseases may emerge as new fungi adapt to surviving in humans. Climate change also increases the risk of severe weather events like floods, which allows dangerous molds to grow in people's homes. Changes in water temperature encourage the growth of harmful algal blooms. These blooms look like scum, foam, paint, or mats on the surface of the water and can be different colors. They can endanger human health when we eat contaminated shellfish, but they can also harm pets, livestock, wildlife, and the environment. There have been warnings in several states about not allowing your dogs to swim in or drink from lakes, rivers, and ponds because of cyanobacteria. This is what they're talking about. In Season six, I talked a lot about how wildlife habitats are disappearing and animals are migrating closer and closer to human habitats. As these animals search for new habitats, there's a greater risk that people will come into contact with them. Rabies has become a major concern since animals that carry that virus are moving into more heavily populated areas. Alaska pox is carried by

21:57 voles imperatures rise across Alaska, these voles are migrating into more populated areas, giving rise to the concern that they could spread the disease to people in those areas. Ebola, lasa rift, valley fever, monkey pocks, and other diseases that are normally segregated to certain parts of the world could begin to spread to other countries, including the US. Recently, we saw a monkey pock's outbreak that spread across the world in no time at all. In Germany, hantavirus tickborn pathogens and waterborne pathogens are a particular concern. Mild winters are good for rodents that carry hantavirus, allowing them to breed more and survive longer outside of their burrows. Capelobacter is also a concern in Germany as the earth worms.

22:48 An outbreak of rodent born leptosporosis among strawberry harvesters that was brought on by heavy rainfalls during harvest is an example of how extreme weather conditions can affect disease occurrence. Germany is also susceptible to disease imports, as people migrate to that country from places that become less habitable due to the effects of global warming. In twenty twenty two, a review of disease and climate change was written in Nature Climate Change. The article showed that of three hundred and seventy five diseases that were studied, two hundred and eighteen of them were made worse by climate change. Now, even if we were able to begin the most forceful mitigation procedures, global warming can't be avoided at this point. All we can do is adapt to it. In the past, we've talked about those populations that are most vulnerable to disease the very old, the very young, and those who are immunocompromised. This will be no different. Those populations will be at higher risk of morbidity and mortality as disease spreads. Vibriel vulnificus is a bacteria that causes flesh to necros It normally lives in the sea or in brackish waters that remain warmer than twenty degrees celsius. It can cause vomiting and diarrhea, but if it infects a wound, it can cause necrotizing fasciitis, where the bacterium eats the flesh around the wound. This can lead to amputation of a

24:22 limb if left untreated. The mortality rate for vivulnificus is one in five. Rising sea temperatures have caused an eightfold increase in infections from vivulnificus between nineteen eighty eight and twenty eighteen on the East coast of the US. Cholera has been endemic in several countries around the world since Time Out of Mind. It's another vibrio disease, Vibrio cholera. It causes a diarrheal infection and it's caused by drinking contaminated water or eating contaminated seed food. Extreme weather events, such as floods in regions with inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure can cause the perfect storm for a cholera outbreak. Countries like Kenya are beginning to put more importance on surveillance and vaccine campaigns to combat the disease. In recent decades, there has been repeated pathogen emergence from animal reservoirs into human populations. Most recently we've experienced COVID nineteen. For a pathogen to become a threat to human populations, the first thing that must happen is that some unsuspecting human has to come in contact with the animal reservoir carrying the disease. Then the pathogen either must have or have the ability to evolve into human to human transmission. Lastly,

25:52 the transmission must have the ability to expand beyond the geographical range of the pathogen. Global changes enable these things to happen in several ways. People are moving into regions that were previously unoccupied, giving rise to more human and animal contact. Population growth and agricultural expansion, coupled with increasing wealth and larger property sizes are driving factors for these interactions, while also contributing to habitat destruction. In nineteen ninety nine, flying foxes caused a severe outbreak of nepavirus when the pathogen jumped to pigs then subsequently to people. Global changes drove this outbreak in three ways. First was the expansion of pig farms into the habitat of the flying fox. Next was the expansion of pig farm operations, giving rise to more porcine hosts, and finally, global trade when the meat became in high demand in Malaysia and Singapore. This example doesn't only apply to the emergence of known pathogens. It could also give rise to novel pathogens that we haven't even heard of yet. While this could become a trend in crops, the expansion of animal products is of particular concern, not only because we are moving into unknown habitats, but overuse of antibiotics and meat animals opens the door for resistant bacteria

27:25 to negatively affect human health. Vaccination, or the lack thereof, is also a factor in the spread of disease. When smallpox was eradicated, we stopped vaccinating against it, and this is a known factor in the rise of monkey pox outbreaks that have happened recently. Aging populations are also causing emergence. As people age, our immune systems become weaker, and this could be an opportunity for novel diseases to spill over into younger populations. Global change may also allow existing human pathogens to evolve novel characteristics and expand in scope. Selection for drug resistance occurs worldwide, and antibiotic resistance has and will evolve repeatedly. It's hard to tell what the endgame of this will be. Some researchers don't think there will be any impact at all from global warming. Others are looking at different ways that global warming could impact infectious disease. We really don't know, but deforestation, loss of habitat, war, migration for resources, severe weather events, and other effects of climate change certainly could help disease travel around the world.

28:45 It's not just about a warming Earth, It's about the changes that take place as other places become inhabitable. It's ninety seconds to midnight, and as global changes are taking place, health is at risk from diseases that don't normally exist in certain regions, but could there also be a risk from diseases that we don't know about yet. Certainly, thank you so much for listening to Cause of Death one hundred seconds to midnight. I want to welcome my latest Patreon to the family. Welcome Rip City Rachel. I'm so happy that you enjoy the show. I'm working on catching up again. I know I just got caught up, but last week I chose to trash a script on a subject that I'm going to possibly have to make an entire season out of.

29:37 It's an important topic, so I don't want to skimp on it. That topic was the marginalization of populations. It's coming, but I have to parse it out a bit better. There is also going to be a subscriber only episode coming out this month, and that will be on aspartame. That's one of my favorite subjects to talk about. You'll know drink dietisoda. Again. I really have no idea what I'm going to talk about next time, so we'll all be surprised. I've got so many things that I want to address this season. I can't make up my mind. Thanks again for listening. You can contact me at Jackie at Cause of Death one hundred sex net, or you can leave a message on the website at www. Cause of Death one hundred sex dot net. I'm also available on all the socials, so check out the show notes and catch up with me there. You can find my Patreon page at Jackie Murante at patreon dot com. Or you can also subscribe to the show on Apple subscriptions. Everyone gets ad free content, and if you subscribe at higher levels, you also get bonus content and other stuff.

30:51 Go sign up, it's for a good cause. Don't forget to rate, review, and share these episodes. Also get in there and subscribe on your favorite podcast player. My daughter and I have a brand new podcast that dropped in October. It's called Diving into Unsolved History. Once a month, we'll tell you a story about an unsolved mystery of the past, then we'll try and figure out what happened. The first episode was on the beel Ciphers. Go check it out. Also check out the show notes for more information on climate change and infectious disease. I'll see you in two weeks when I delve into another one hundred Seconds to Midnight episode.