S7 E3: 100 Seconds to Midnight: Global Change and Emerging Disease

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Tired to the same old podcasts every
week. When you're ready for something different,

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come give us a shot. Greetings, We're Technically a Conversation, a

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podcast for curious people, by curious
people. Every week we take turns sharing

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a new topic and the other host
has no idea what the topic will be.

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Our topics are all over the place, from light and funny to dark

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and sometimes spooky. We've covered everything
from true crime, historical events and people,

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pop culture, icons, the supernatural
and occult I like that, and

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legends and folklore my favorite. We're
like the Dollar Tree stuff you should know,

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except completely different. No matter what
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make the episodes funny. Yeah,
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jokes aren't very good. What are
you talking about? My jokes are fantastic.

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Hey, I get paid to laugh
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paid. Check us out at Technically
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you were getting paid. Hi guys, I'm Courtney and I'm Lisa and we

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are the hosts of the Book of
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out of New Jersey, where we
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you may have never heard of.
So join us in the Book of the

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Dead Library for another chapter of the
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your podcasts. Bye guys, dark
Cast Network, come on over to the

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dark Side. We're really nice people
once you get past the true crime and

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scary science. Hello, and welcome
to Cause of Death one hundred seconds to

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Midnight. I'm your host, Jackie
Morante. This is season seven. I

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call it Countdown, and it's a
look at why we've been sitting at ninety

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seconds to midnight since last January.
The new year is sneaking up on us,

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and the doomsday clock may or may
not change again in the third week

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of January twenty twenty four. The
announcement by the Board of Atomic Scientists is

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usually made around the twenty fourth of
the month, and it gives an in

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depth look at the temperature both physically
and politically around the world. While the

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Board addresses issues surrounding nuclear arms more
than they address climate change, that subject

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has been mentioned more than once.
I'm often asked to talk about global warming.

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My answer is that I do.
I talk about it in almost every

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one hundred seconds to Midnight episode.
Global warming either influences or effects just about

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everything that makes the clock tick down
in one way or another. Today,

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I'm going to talk about global warming
again, specifically how it is effects infectious

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disease. Since the COVID nineteen pandemic
began, there's been a lot of talk

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about what it is, where it
came from, and how to get rid

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of it or at least curb it. But I think we may need to

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go deeper into the jungle to talk
about emerging disease and how climate change will

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affect it. It's ninety seconds to
midnight, and across the world the temperature

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is rising. Not only our old
diseases rearing their heads, but new diseases

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are making their way into humanity.
They're coming with a vengeance, and we

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are not prepared. Before we get
started, I want to define climate change

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and talk a little bit about what
causes it. Climate change, according to

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the United Nations, climate action refers
to long term shifts in temperatures and weather

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patterns. Large volcanic eruptions and changes
in the activity of the sun can make

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this occur naturally, but the main
driver of climate change since the eighteen hundreds

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has been human activity. Greenhouse gases
like carbon dioxide and methane cause a barrier

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around the earth that traps the heat
of the sun and causes temperatures to rise.

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Gas and coal emissions caused by driving
cars and heating homes are the most

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common causes of carbon dioxide emissions,
but clearing land and deforestation can also release

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carbon dioxide. Agriculture and oil and
gas operations are the major causes of methane

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emissions. Now, I want to
stop right here and say that there is

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no immediate remedy to this. There
are currently no lasting solutions that are sustainable.

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I can't just stop driving my car
to work. I can stop making

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unnecessary trips and driving for fun,
but I still have to drive. People

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have to eat, and those who
raise our crops and animals for food can't

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just stop using diesel to do it. The transportation industry puts that food on

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our tables. So now you see
the dilemma. The solutions don't come easy.

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Now, let's talk about this seemingly
unsurmountable problem as it relates to infectious

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disease I'm going to mention several diseases
that I haven't talked about yet, but

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we'll get there, I promise.
There are several layers to this episode.

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Climate change affects our world in many
ways, and the ways that people respond

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to it are causing disease to spread
as much as the environment is contributing to

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the spread of disease. We've talked
about several of these things before. Severe

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weather, droughts, floods, and
the side effects of these things war,

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famine, and migration. These things
are known as global change, and they

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are the direct precursors to emerging diseases
caused by climate change. The Earth's temperature

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is predicted to rise one to three
and a half degrees celsius by the year

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twenty one hundred. This will increase
the likelihood of vector borne diseases in new

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areas. It will be evident mostly
in the extremes of the temperature ranges,

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with the low end lying between fourteen
and eighteen degrees celsius and the high end

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lying between thirty five to forty degrees
celsius. Mosquitoes, ticks, fleas,

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and other vectors have been reproducing and
spreading disease at greater rates due to early

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springs, milder winters, and generally
warmer temperatures. Their habitats are also expanding.

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Between two thousand and four and twenty
eighteen, the number of reported illnesses

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from mosquito, tick, and flea
bites more than doubled, with more than

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seven hundred and sixty thousand cases reported
in the US, and nine new diseases

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have either been discovered or introduced in
the US during this period. The geographic

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ranges where tick borne diseases such as
lime disease, anaplasmosis, electriosis, and

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ricossettiosis known as Rocky Mountain spotted fever
have expanded, They are expected to continue

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to expand into new regions, endangering
even more people. Mosquitoes are also reproducing

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at higher rates thanks to longer,
warmer summers. In twenty twelve, a

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mild winter, early spring, and
hot summer became the perfect storm for an

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outbreak of West Nile virus in the
US that resulted in fifty six hundred illnesses

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and two hundred and eighty six deaths. Mosquito born, parasitic and viral diseases

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are among those diseases that are most
sensitive to climate As more animals come into

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contacts with ticks and other vectors,
they will be more likely to spread disease

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and these diseases could spread to humans. Earlier in twenty twenty three, who

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warned that dengey and chikiunga are now
spreading far beyond their previous geographical zones of

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transmission. Now half of the world's
population is at risk of getting these diseases.

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Severe dengey can cause persistent vomiting,
bleeding gums, and severe abdominal pain.

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The mortality rate from dengay is very
high. If left untreated, the

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mortality rate is about thirteen percent.
In Bangladesh, more than two thousand cases

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of dengey are being reported every day. Dhaka has converted its dedicated COVID nineteen

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hospital into a dengae facility. In
Nepal, where dengey didn't exist until recently,

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climate change is causing more and more
cases of the disease. Winters have

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been increasingly warmer with less snow,
and the warmer temperatures mean that the anophales

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mosquitoes can inhabit the mountainous areas.
This is concerning for health experts because once

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dangae is seen in an area,
it means that Japanese encephalitis and malaria are

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not far behind. In a study
in Biology Letters earlier in twenty twenty three,

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researchers found that Enophales mosquitoes have expanded
their range by about six and a

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half meters per year and away from
the equator about four point seven kilometers every

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year for the past century. Anophales
mosquitoes carry malaria. This is a parasite

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that has been historically known for high
mortality and morbidity rates, especially in places

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where health infrastructure is lacking. Malaria
causes anemia and jaundice due to the loss

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of red blood set in the body. Treatment is available, but the disease

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needs to be treated early to avoid
any long term illness. Areas of the

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world where malaria didn't exist before will
be challenged with controlling a disease that is

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very easily spread, and since doctors
haven't seen it in those areas, it

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may be misdiagnosed. Another consideration of
human growth is urbanization. Disease spreads quickly

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in urbanized areas since there is more
human to human contact. This isn't something

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that's new. Places where people are
packed together will see higher incidences of disease,

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while places that are less urban will
see less. The eighties agypdi and

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eighties Alboppictus mosquitoes are well adapted to
urban areas. Population density appears to be

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correlated with the preference of the eighties
agypdi for human odor, Hence the evolution

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of human biting Mosquito bites cause malaria. Climate anomalies associated with al Nino southern

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oscillation phenomenon resulting in drought and floods
are expected to increase the frequency and intensity

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of vector borne diseases. These events
have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in

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Africa, Asia, and South America. Heavy rains create breeding grounds for vectors,

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drive vector carrying rodents from their burrows, and contaminate clean water systems.

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There is some debate amongst researchers as
to the true threat of emerging infectionous disease

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as it relates to climate change,
but I'll agree that climate change is causing

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side effects that are related to emerging
global diseases. War famine, migration,

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water shortages, catastrophic weather events,
milder winters and hotter summers are all contributed

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to emerging diseases, and all can
be directly related to climate change. Human

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susceptibility to various diseases may be compounded
by malnutrition due to climate stress on agriculture.

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The human immune system could also weaken
by an increased flux in ultraviolet radiation.

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The effects of disease will differ greatly
between countries that have developed health infrastructures

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and those that do not. Human
settlement patterns in different regions will also influence

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disease trends. There is a need
for more disease modeling of countries affected in

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populations and studies on geographical data to
help project the actual outcomes. Actually,

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there is a need for more disease
surveillance worldwide. Those areas with poor disease

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surveillance and where people don't report their
illnesses are more likely to suffer the con

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consequences when the outbreaks occur. If
epidemiologists don't know there's a problem, they

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can't do much to fix it.
Through research, we can find ways to

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mitigate the possibilities of pandemics related to
climate change, but that's a long way

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off. At this point, mitigation
hasn't been a realistic or popular thought.

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We must recognize when these things are
about to happen, so we can stop

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them before they start. Through field
and laboratory studies, the determination of developmental

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thresholds, tolerances and tipping points needs
to be established. Risk assessment and predictive

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modeling will be a big part of
major developments to stop trends using a full

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range of scenarios, but not every
scenario will be part of the prediction.

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Many things will slip through the cracks. Human migration due to collapsing infrastructure during

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weather events in other parts of the
world will also be a factor in running

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diseases like cholera. Recently, there
was a cholera outbreak in Europe because of

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a migration from Kenya, where a
severe weather event had taken place. It's

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important to keep in mind that there
will be several factors that are put into

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play when it comes to novelle diseases
and vectors finding their way into new geographical

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territories. Migration is only one of
them. Even now, the transport of

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food, goods and people across the
world exacerbates the likelihood of emerging diseases.

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We saw this with COVID nineteen.
Planes, trains, and automobiles took that

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disease from Wuhan everywhere else, and
by the time anyone thought to shut down

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travel, it was too late.
The part of this that will be affected

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by climate change is whether the diseases
will stick around. Will they be able

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to survive in climates that were once
too cold for them since those climates will

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be getting warmer. Climate change has
begun to manifest significant impact on terrestrial ecosystem

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structure, particularly in northern latitudes.
Soil composition, vegetation, cover and distribution

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of wild ruminant species, and the
density and movement of domestic livestock are all

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shifting as temperatures rise globally and extreme
weather events occur. This is causing new

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vulnerabilities that can alter transmission cycles between
hosts and pathogens. We're going to take

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a little break to hear from our
sponsors, then we'll be back to talk

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be compensated. Anthrax is everywhere.
It lives in the ground. It rarely

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affects mammals, but it can be
deadly when it does as the earthworms.

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Anthrax can become more prevalent in places
that it hasn't been seen before, particularly

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in the temperate, boreal and Arctic
north, where global warming has taken its

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biggest toll on the environment. Livestock
dish distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil

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to water balance will also have an
impact on emergence. Anthracs can typically be

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found in North America, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. Transmission is better

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controlled in more affluent countries and less
so in places where healthcare infrastructure is lacking.

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Grasslands in the semi arid step of
northern latitudes are in particular danger of

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becoming vulnerable to climate change. These
fragile systems are easily destroyed, and emerging

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diseases such as anthrax could become problematic
since these grasslands are important grazing zones for

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wild, ruminant and domestic livestock populations. Recently, there have been outbreaks of

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anthrax in the northern tundra biome of
the Russian Arctic, where the permafrost is

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melting. These outbreaks have devastated local
caribou herding communities. Temperatures in the Arctic

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Circle are rising about three times faster
than the rest of the world. Many

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ancient pathogens are lying in wait under
the melting permafrost. Permafrost is a preserver

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for those pathogens because there is no
oxygen and it's cold and dark. Bacteria,

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viruses, and fungi can survive after
being frozen for hundreds or even thousands

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of years under the permafrost. Recently, fragments of RNA from the nineteen eighteen

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Spanish flu virus were found in people
who had been buried in Alaska's hundred during

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the pandemic. In twenty sixteen,
a twelve year old child died and twenty

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people were infected with anthrax when the
body of a reindeer that had died of

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the disease seventy five years before was
exposed after a heat wave in Siberia melted

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the permafrost where it was buried.
Another team of researchers collected samples of the

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Earth's oldest glacial ice from fifty meters
below the surface into bet and uncovered twenty

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eight ancient viruses that were previously unknown. Air pollution could help viruses become airborne

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and more deadly. Particulate pollutions,
such as black carbons, sulfates, and

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nitrates, penetrate deep into the lungs, which creates serious health conditions on their

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own, but viruses could attach to
these particulates and travel deeper into the body.

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This, combined with the weakened immune
system caused by pollution, could help

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viruses spread more easily and become more
virulent. There will likely be an increase

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in allergenic diseases, complications in cardiovascular
disease, and respiratory diseases when we consider

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the effects of climate change. Water
Borne infections, food borne infections, and

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vector borne infections are of greatest concern. The atmosphere warms, food will spoil

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faster, and algal blooms will become
more prevalent. Fungi and love warm weather

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and climate change is allowing fungi to
migrate into areas where once it was too

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cold for them to survive. An
example of this is valley fever. Normally

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found in hot, dry areas,
it has recently been found in the Pacific

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Northwest. Valley fever causes severe infections
and is often misdiagnosed and improperly treated,

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leading to a very high mortality rate. As the difference between environmental temperature and

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human body temperature narrows, new fungal
diseases may emerge as new fungi adapt to

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surviving in humans. Climate change also
increases the risk of severe weather events like

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floods, which allows dangerous molds to
grow in people's homes. Changes in water

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temperature encourage the growth of harmful algal
blooms. These blooms look like scum,

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foam, paint, or mats on
the surface of the water and can be

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different colors. They can endanger human
health when we eat contaminated shellfish, but

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they can also harm pets, livestock, wildlife, and the environment. There

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have been warnings in several states about
not allowing your dogs to swim in or

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drink from lakes, rivers, and
ponds because of cyanobacteria. This is what

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they're talking about. In Season six, I talked a lot about how wildlife

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habitats are disappearing and animals are migrating
closer and closer to human habitats. As

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these animals search for new habitats,
there's a greater risk that people will come

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into contact with them. Rabies has
become a major concern since animals that carry

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that virus are moving into more heavily
populated areas. Alaska pox is carried by

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voles imperatures rise across Alaska, these
voles are migrating into more populated areas,

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giving rise to the concern that they
could spread the disease to people in those

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areas. Ebola, lasa rift,
valley fever, monkey pocks, and other

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diseases that are normally segregated to certain
parts of the world could begin to spread

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to other countries, including the US. Recently, we saw a monkey pock's

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outbreak that spread across the world in
no time at all. In Germany,

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hantavirus tickborn pathogens and waterborne pathogens are
a particular concern. Mild winters are good

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for rodents that carry hantavirus, allowing
them to breed more and survive longer outside

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of their burrows. Capelobacter is also
a concern in Germany as the earth worms.

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An outbreak of rodent born leptosporosis among
strawberry harvesters that was brought on by

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heavy rainfalls during harvest is an example
of how extreme weather conditions can affect disease

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occurrence. Germany is also susceptible to
disease imports, as people migrate to that

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country from places that become less habitable
due to the effects of global warming.

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In twenty twenty two, a review
of disease and climate change was written in

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Nature Climate Change. The article showed
that of three hundred and seventy five diseases

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that were studied, two hundred and
eighteen of them were made worse by climate

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change. Now, even if we
were able to begin the most forceful mitigation

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procedures, global warming can't be avoided
at this point. All we can do

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is adapt to it. In the
past, we've talked about those populations that

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are most vulnerable to disease the very
old, the very young, and those

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who are immunocompromised. This will be
no different. Those populations will be at

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higher risk of morbidity and mortality as
disease spreads. Vibriel vulnificus is a bacteria

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that causes flesh to necros It normally
lives in the sea or in brackish waters

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that remain warmer than twenty degrees celsius. It can cause vomiting and diarrhea,

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but if it infects a wound,
it can cause necrotizing fasciitis, where the

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bacterium eats the flesh around the wound. This can lead to amputation of a

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limb if left untreated. The mortality
rate for vivulnificus is one in five.

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Rising sea temperatures have caused an eightfold
increase in infections from vivulnificus between nineteen eighty

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eight and twenty eighteen on the East
coast of the US. Cholera has been

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endemic in several countries around the world
since Time Out of Mind. It's another

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vibrio disease, Vibrio cholera. It
causes a diarrheal infection and it's caused by

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drinking contaminated water or eating contaminated seed
food. Extreme weather events, such as

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floods in regions with inadequate water,
sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure can cause the

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perfect storm for a cholera outbreak.
Countries like Kenya are beginning to put more

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importance on surveillance and vaccine campaigns to
combat the disease. In recent decades,

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there has been repeated pathogen emergence from
animal reservoirs into human populations. Most recently

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we've experienced COVID nineteen. For a
pathogen to become a threat to human populations,

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the first thing that must happen is
that some unsuspecting human has to come

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in contact with the animal reservoir carrying
the disease. Then the pathogen either must

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have or have the ability to evolve
into human to human transmission. Lastly,

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the transmission must have the ability to
expand beyond the geographical range of the pathogen.

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Global changes enable these things to happen
in several ways. People are moving

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into regions that were previously unoccupied,
giving rise to more human and animal contact.

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Population growth and agricultural expansion, coupled
with increasing wealth and larger property sizes

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are driving factors for these interactions,
while also contributing to habitat destruction. In

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nineteen ninety nine, flying foxes caused
a severe outbreak of nepavirus when the pathogen

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jumped to pigs then subsequently to people. Global changes drove this outbreak in three

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ways. First was the expansion of
pig farms into the habitat of the flying

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fox. Next was the expansion of
pig farm operations, giving rise to more

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porcine hosts, and finally, global
trade when the meat became in high demand

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in Malaysia and Singapore. This example
doesn't only apply to the emergence of known

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pathogens. It could also give rise
to novel pathogens that we haven't even heard

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00:27:07.799 --> 00:27:12.119
of yet. While this could become
a trend in crops, the expansion of

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animal products is of particular concern,
not only because we are moving into unknown

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habitats, but overuse of antibiotics and
meat animals opens the door for resistant bacteria

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to negatively affect human health. Vaccination, or the lack thereof, is also

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a factor in the spread of disease. When smallpox was eradicated, we stopped

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vaccinating against it, and this is
a known factor in the rise of monkey

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pox outbreaks that have happened recently.
Aging populations are also causing emergence. As

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people age, our immune systems become
weaker, and this could be an opportunity

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00:27:53.799 --> 00:28:02.160
for novel diseases to spill over into
younger populations. Global change may also allow

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00:28:02.400 --> 00:28:10.119
existing human pathogens to evolve novel characteristics
and expand in scope. Selection for drug

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00:28:10.200 --> 00:28:18.680
resistance occurs worldwide, and antibiotic resistance
has and will evolve repeatedly. It's hard

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to tell what the endgame of this
will be. Some researchers don't think there

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00:28:22.880 --> 00:28:27.480
will be any impact at all from
global warming. Others are looking at different

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00:28:27.480 --> 00:28:33.119
ways that global warming could impact infectious
disease. We really don't know, but

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deforestation, loss of habitat, war, migration for resources, severe weather events,

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and other effects of climate change certainly
could help disease travel around the world.

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It's not just about a warming Earth, It's about the changes that take

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place as other places become inhabitable.
It's ninety seconds to midnight, and as

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00:28:56.799 --> 00:29:03.000
global changes are taking place, health
is at risk from diseases that don't normally

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00:29:03.079 --> 00:29:07.680
exist in certain regions, but could
there also be a risk from diseases that

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we don't know about yet. Certainly, thank you so much for listening to

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00:29:14.680 --> 00:29:18.440
Cause of Death one hundred seconds to
midnight. I want to welcome my latest

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00:29:18.440 --> 00:29:23.160
Patreon to the family. Welcome Rip
City Rachel. I'm so happy that you

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00:29:23.319 --> 00:29:27.119
enjoy the show. I'm working on
catching up again. I know I just

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00:29:27.160 --> 00:29:30.960
got caught up, but last week
I chose to trash a script on a

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00:29:32.039 --> 00:29:36.440
subject that I'm going to possibly have
to make an entire season out of.

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00:29:37.519 --> 00:29:41.039
It's an important topic, so I
don't want to skimp on it. That

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00:29:41.200 --> 00:29:45.920
topic was the marginalization of populations.
It's coming, but I have to parse

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00:29:45.960 --> 00:29:52.839
it out a bit better. There
is also going to be a subscriber only

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00:29:52.920 --> 00:29:56.359
episode coming out this month, and
that will be on aspartame. That's one

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00:29:56.359 --> 00:30:00.559
of my favorite subjects to talk about. You'll know drink dietisoda. Again.

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00:30:02.279 --> 00:30:04.319
I really have no idea what I'm
going to talk about next time, so

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00:30:04.440 --> 00:30:08.759
we'll all be surprised. I've got
so many things that I want to address

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00:30:08.799 --> 00:30:12.799
this season. I can't make up
my mind. Thanks again for listening.

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00:30:14.400 --> 00:30:18.240
You can contact me at Jackie at
Cause of Death one hundred sex net,

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00:30:18.680 --> 00:30:23.559
or you can leave a message on
the website at www. Cause of Death

316
00:30:23.680 --> 00:30:29.960
one hundred sex dot net. I'm
also available on all the socials, so

317
00:30:30.119 --> 00:30:33.359
check out the show notes and catch
up with me there. You can find

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00:30:33.359 --> 00:30:40.039
my Patreon page at Jackie Murante at
patreon dot com. Or you can also

319
00:30:40.119 --> 00:30:45.839
subscribe to the show on Apple subscriptions. Everyone gets ad free content, and

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00:30:45.880 --> 00:30:49.720
if you subscribe at higher levels,
you also get bonus content and other stuff.

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00:30:51.799 --> 00:30:56.400
Go sign up, it's for a
good cause. Don't forget to rate,

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00:30:56.559 --> 00:31:00.960
review, and share these episodes.
Also get in there and subscribe on

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00:31:00.039 --> 00:31:06.440
your favorite podcast player. My daughter
and I have a brand new podcast that

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00:31:06.559 --> 00:31:11.559
dropped in October. It's called Diving
into Unsolved History. Once a month,

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00:31:11.640 --> 00:31:15.839
we'll tell you a story about an
unsolved mystery of the past, then we'll

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00:31:15.880 --> 00:31:19.839
try and figure out what happened.
The first episode was on the beel Ciphers.

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00:31:21.200 --> 00:31:26.039
Go check it out. Also check
out the show notes for more information

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00:31:26.119 --> 00:31:30.359
on climate change and infectious disease.
I'll see you in two weeks when I

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00:31:30.440 --> 00:32:38.079
delve into another one hundred Seconds to
Midnight episode.